Polymarket has seen a huge surge of activity as the US presidential election approaches; in recent days, it has averaged about $100M/day, and climbing
At the end of the 5th of November, Eastern time (9PM Pacific time), what will the total volume of bets placed on Polymarket in those five days be?
Resolution will use the dashboard at https://dune.com/rchen8/polymarket. I may vote on this market.
EDIT: I initially screwed up the order of magnitude, Oops! Fixed now.
Came in just below 500M even counting the extra hours of last month and extra 30 minutes of this one, so I didn't even have to do the more complicated check. A sort of disappointing market, as a consequence of the measurement change, but alas.
@SeekingEternity [EDIT: whoops, you specify that you'll be using EST] whatever timezone that dashboard is in it seems to have decided it's the 6th now, so this market should resolve to <500m it looks like
@Fay42 yeah, I'll correct for that. Might have been easier to use their TZ but that's not what I said
@Fay42 that said, it will need to be some very busy hours. I imagine a ton of trading is happening, but not so much net new trades or whatever, exactly, the dashboard is now tracking.
@SeekingEternity This is because they changed the estimation method fwiw - it said >400 million yesterday. See also how no day has over ~70m.
@Fay42 oh wow, they sure did. Oct down from 2.5B to just over 1B, wow. Probably something about not counting wash sales?
@RileyCarney goddammit that's what I get for making markets before caffeine, those K should be M and M should be B, fixing...
@RileyCarney yeah they removed fees, trades are now fully reversible (so long as nobody else gets there first)