Will Julian Dunning (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Will Julian Dunning (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
3
90Ṁ732029
16%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Julian Dunning (cofounder of Truffle Security, 2022 Forbes Under 30) has been indicted or criminally charged by police with a serious crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if they are not found not guilty.
Examples that count: wire fraud, perjury, assault, arson, theft.
Examples that don't count: littering, possession of small amounts of marijuana.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
1,000What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
Related questions
Will Alex Finch (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
20% chance
Will Dylan Ayrey (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
17% chance
Will Andrew Malek (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
16% chance
Will Jesse Lang (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
21% chance
Will Jordan Anderson (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
19% chance
Will Tim Almond (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
16% chance
Will Alex Atallah (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
18% chance
Will Amin Aalipour (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
21% chance
Will Dane Baker (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
16% chance
Will Marc Atiyeh (2022 Forbes Under 30) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
16% chance