Scrooge McDuck's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.65
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Scrooge McDuck bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
- Will Kanye West make any appearance in public before Jan 15, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will any prediction market clearly elicit knowledge about an important event that was otherwise unknown to the public before 2025?YESṀ100
- Will fixed-payout multiple-choice markets be available on Manifold on 2024-01-01?YESṀ50