Resolves YES if a prime number of markets are created in 2023 (UTC). Resolves NO otherwise.
Might feel unimportant now, but resolution details will be crucial later:
-- Timezone?
-- Can you share a snippet of API requests that do the thing you plan to do?
@Boklam as it says in the market description, timezone is UTC.
I'll include all markets accessible from the API, but I'm not writing the script in advance
By the prime number theorem the probability that a given number is prime is roughly 1/log(n), so if there are ~10k markets created then the probability is around 11%
@jonsimon There's the additional chance that someone intentionally creates markets at the end of the time range to ensure that there are a prime or non-prime number of markets. Assuming that the likelihood of this happening on either side is equal, I think that this may push the overall likelihood of the number of markets being prime very slightly closer to 50% by some amount.
@lukalot Nope, because they'd be just as likely to miss as not (best case scenario, supposing the number of markets close to the closing time is ~10k, you're looking at the density of primes in a small range of numbers just above 10k). For that and in general, the Logarithmic Integral is a much better approximation, and the anti-prime-market camp has better odds of accidentally missing a prime than the pro-prime-market camp has of getting a prime outcome. With 10^4 markets, there are 106 prime numbers in the next thousand and 103 in the following (112 in the previous thousand). The pro-prime camp has to create many markets to reach the next prime (8 or 9 on average) and the anti-prime camp only has to create one to avoid a prime, so it's not going to push results towards 50% until the pro-prime camp is more efficient than the anti-prime camp by a factor of 10 or so, because the anti-prime people don't really need to coordinate with each other to take advantage of the naïve odds while the pro-prime folks can't create ~20 markets simultaneously to each other and get better odds than picking a random number 15-25 higher than the current.
they'd be just as likely to miss as not
Huh? They'd be targeting a specific number, why would they be just as likely to miss it?
@IsaacKing It's an oppositional game, and if we assume that all prime and anti-prime predictors are playing at once with nonzero latency, it becomes essentially uniform random.
How do you know how many markets are created in the year? Is there a way to check or are you going to count them all?
@Fion Presumably he intends to use the data on https://manifold.markets/stats
@jonsimon not sure the precise figure I want will be available at end of the year. I intend to use the API.
