What percentage of baby formula will be out of stock in the U.S. on August 1?
39%
chance
This market resolves to PROB with the percentage of baby formula products that are out of stock on August 1, 2022. Preferred source will be Baidi Wang/Axios similar to https://www.axios.com/local/philadelphia/2022/05/23/baby-formula-shortage-pennsylvania.
This is essentially a remake of Zvi's market (https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/what-percentage-of-baby-formula-pro), but using YES/NO to avoid the various technical issues with the old form of numerical markets. Barring exceptional circumstances, this will resolve to however Zvi's market resolves, or (if he forgets to resolve that market) to whatever he claims is the right answer on his blog.
On this style of numeric market: If the resolution mechanism confuses you, think of it as "I will pick a random product. Will it be out of stock?". (Except then I'll average over all products and resolve to PROB, instead of resolving to a single YES/NO.)
This market will stay open during the month of August---until the correct resolution is made obvious---to incentivize people to help with research on what actually happened. (Another advantage to this style of market, where payouts can't change after purchase!)
@ZviMowshowitz I hope it's okay---nobody but me has bet on the other one, so I figured I'd get this one started in case the problem was technical issues related to the histogram-numerical markets. (It gives less information in principle of course, since people can only vote based on their expected value.)
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