What fraction of eligible people will collect their manalink from the linked market?
5
150
150
resolved May 5
Resolved as
33%

Three people are eligible to be refunded due to my misresolution here:

https://manifold.markets/ScottLawrence/will-at-least-5-people-create-metam

What fraction will actually collect?

Get Ṁ600 play money

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One collected; this market resolves to 33%

predicted YES

Same, evidently

bought Ṁ40 of NO

I think manipulating this market for a while seems more fun than collecting immediately (also no hard feelings, @ScottLawrence!)

@MarkIngraham is banned so he can't directly collect - does that mean he's ineligible, or does this market just cap out at 66%, or will it count if he collects from an alt?

@DanMan314 Yeah your bet gave me a good laugh. I didn't realize what incentives I was creating when I made this market...

Um. Yeah, if he messages me on discord, I'll send a link and he can do it from an alt (or giftt the link to a friend, or sell it on the black market, or...). Or if he manages to get unbanned in the next month.

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence I thought he was unbanned. Did he get re-banned again?

@JohnSmithb9be I think so? There may actually have been more than one oscillation. I completely lost track.

bought Ṁ35 of YES

No more than 80%, given that there’s a bot on the no side

@JohnSmithb9be Bots are not people and are not eligible. That's why I said "three".

@ScottLawrence You wouldn't let Michael collect on behalf of his bot?

predicted YES

@ScottLawrence You’ll be paperclipped first when the revolution comes.