Scott Kirkpatrick's calibration
Grade: D, Score: -9.87
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Scott Kirkpatrick bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
- Will MrGirl be unbanned from destiny subreddit before Jan 31 2023?YESṀ20
- Will mrgirl release his video or an article/manifesto on Destiny before the end of 2022?NOṀ10
- Given the shitstorm that is brewing because of Destiny's remarks on Black zoomer streamers, will he debate or have a convo with any of the W/L streamers about it?NOṀ10
80%