Resolves Yes if the difference between critic/audience score for Greta Gerwigs 'Barbie' is more then 10% in Rotten Tomatoes by 21th of August. (Movie releases on 21th of July)
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selling my position, as i'm seeing fox news pick up more and more stories on 'Barbie'. Looks like there's a healthy chance that the film gets review bombed. i'm a bit torn as to whether fans of barbie - and i believe they'll be legion, will balance this out. i believed this was over-priced at 75%, and now a bit underpriced at 45. i used to think the risk was critic score, but have changed my mind.
@JackHarmening wait, why do you think it will be review bombed? Are there negative stories drifting around?
@ScipioFabius Conservatives may review bomb because a toy associated w femininity is in a film about feminism, that also features LGBTQ actors/actresses etc.
median audiencescores/critic scores for films of all budgets aren't greater than 10% on rotten tomatoes BTW, unless this data has diverged even more in the past 6 years - imo the trend has been more about inflation than separation with the gap being no bigger than 8 in 2016.
that inflation favors barbie to have low disparity - critics will fawn, superfans of the aesthetic will chime in. imo barbie will avoid the negative polarization most films of its kind gets by virtue of marketing itself to film nerds w Greta in charge
i think this probability is still too low given historical disparity data alone though
@JackHarmening This is a good argument, however I think that looking at the median scores for all movies is not really correct when we are discussing the disparity for individual movies. However I would agree with the polarization argument, which is the most important here because that is what could create the disparity in the first place. I think I might change my bet because of that.
@ScipioFabius Do you think the audience score or the critics score is going to be lower?
@chilli I think the risk here is critic score. The one early review I could find was positive but mild, but that is often sufficient to get high 80s. But because it’s Greta I’m assuming she’ll land 85-95 and my range for audience is like 75-95, with tail risk that parents thinking it’s a kids movie will post negative reviews.
But the most probable range for me of critic and audience scores are definitely within 10