We have just reached 8:35 UTC on July 15. Time to figure out how this resolves...

I intend to resolve this market YES, as 7/8 conditions are true, an odd number. I will wait a day before resolving in case anyone wants to try and find any mistakes in the resolution logic.

CONDITION ONE: False

((England won Euro 2024) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever has more YES voters than NO voters) AND (Biden has not dropped out)) FALSE - England did not win Euro 2024

OR ((TSLA stock is above 285 / share) AND (Elon Musk has sent at least three tweets (not reposts) on Monday, July 15 by 8:35 UTC time)) FALSE - TSLA stock is not above 285/share

OR ((The FiveThirtyEight generic ballot polling average shows Democrats winning by at least 0.7% on Sunday, July 14) AND (Manifold has more than 1500 DAUs on Sunday, July 14) AND (TSLA stock is below 295 / share)

AND (Noam Chomsky is alive)) FALSE - Generic ballot shows 0.6% for July 14

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION TWO: True

(((Harry Kane scored a goal in the Euro final) OR (Elon Musk has endorsed Donald Trump for president) OR (Obama has publicly called for Biden to drop out)) AND (Cannabis has not been rescheduled) AND (Biden has not banned menthol cigarettes)) True - Elon Musk has endorsed Donald Trump, Cannabis has not been rescheduled, menthol cigarettes are not banned

OR ((Trump has announced his vice presidential running mate) AND (Claude 3.5 Sonnet successfully predicts the resolution of at least half of the other conditions in this market)

OR (Andrew Tate is found guilty of human sex trafficking)

OR (Joe Biden has announced he will drop out of the 2024 presidential race)

OR (This market - https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus - has resolved YES)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION THREE: True

((Someone correctly points out mismatched parentheses in these resolution criteria) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever has more NO voters than YES voters)) True - Someone pointed out mismatched parens and the poll on whether this is the worst market resolved NO

OR (((The Euro final is 0-0 in regular time) OR (Spain scores a penalty kick in the Euro final)) AND ((Israel has not invaded Lebanon in 2024) AND (A ceasefire in Gaza has not been declared in 2024)))

OR (Someone dies of H51N1 bird flu in America in 2024)

OR (Trump and Biden agree to a golf match)

OR ((The S&P 500 is up on July 12) AND (Taylor Swift has not endorsed Joe Biden for the 2024 US presidential election) AND (Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released))

OR (Noam Chomsky is dead)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION FOUR: True

((Condition One, Condition Two, and Condition Three are all false)

OR (Condition One, Condition Two, and Condition Three are all true)

OR (Sonia Sotomayor announces retirement from the Supreme Court in 2024)

OR (Trump has announced Marco Rubio as his Vice President)

OR (Silver is above $30.50)

OR (WTI crude futures on this site - https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.html - are above 87/bbl)

OR ((WTI crude futures on that site are below 77 / bbl) AND (My poll on whether this is the worst market ever is not tied))

OR (The Economist presidential model gives Trump a 45% or higher chance of winning Minnesota on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time)

OR (The Economist presidential model gives Biden a 66% or higher chance of winning Michigan on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time))

AND ((Joe Biden has not dropped out of the presidential race)

OR (A tropical storm forms anywhere in the world between July 11 and July 15)) True - Silver is above 30.50 and Joe Biden has not dropped out

OR (This market - https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-an-llm-be-able-to-solve-confus - has resolved YES)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION FIVE: True

((Condition Three is false) AND (Sonia Sotomayor announces retirement from the Supreme Court in 2024) OR (Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released)) True - Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released, and the AND takes precedence over the OR here.

OR ((Bing Chat / Microsoft Copilot refuses to predict the resolution of this market when given a link) AND (This space weather page does not show G none on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time - https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/))

OR (Trump posts about Nancy Pelosi on Truth Social on July 15)

OR ((The Euro final goes to extra time) AND (I ask the random number generator bot to generate a number from 1 to 3 and it picks 3))

OR (Grok 2 has been released)

OR (The price of gold on https://goldprice.org is above $35 on July 15 at 8:35 UTC)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION SIX: True

(At least one of Conditions One through Five is false)

AND ((Less than 500000 people in Houston do not have power on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time) OR (The price of BTC on July 15 at 8:35 UTC time is above 60000)) Trie - Condition One is false and BTC's price is 63000

OR (Joe Biden has announced he will drop out of the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION SEVEN:

((Joe Biden has not announced he will drop out of the presidential race)

AND (Elon Musk has not endorsed Joe Biden)

AND (Nobody gets a red card during the Euro final game)

AND (Argentina wins Copa America 2024)

AND (Bitcoin does not hit 66,000 in July 2024)

AND (GameStop has not filed a class action lawsuit against Roaring Kitty)

AND (At least one of Condition Five and Condition Six is true)

AND (At least one of Condition Three and Condition Six is true)) TRUE - All of these conditions are true. GameStop investors filed a (withdrawn) lawsuit against Roaring Kitty before this market was created, but the company itself did not file a lawsuit.

OR (Any album released on July 12 has a score of 3.9 or higher on RateYourMusic with at least 1000 ratings)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

CONDITION EIGHT:

((More goals are scored in the Euro final than the Copa America final) AND (Apple stock increases on July 12)) TRUE - The euro final was 2-1 while the Copa America final was 1-0, and Apple stock increased on July 12.

OR ((Apple stock decreases on July 12) AND (GPT-5 has not been released) AND (Claude 3.5 Opus has not been released))

OR ((Every other condition is false) AND (TSLA stock decreases on July 12))

OR ((Mr. Beast releases a new video between July 11 and July 15) AND (Condition One is true))

OR ((Mr. Beast has 301M subscribers) AND (Spain wins the Euro final in regular time) AND (Argentina wins the Copa America final in regular time))

OR (Guyana and Venezuela have a military conflict in 2024)

OR ((Gemini incorrectly predicts how Condition Seven will resolve) AND (Noam Chomsky is alive))

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

Gold Price

GOLDPRICE.ORG - The No. 1 gold price site for fast loading live gold price charts in ounces, grams and kilos in every national currency in the world.

This will be fun to resolve

Closing in 2 hours

oof

I walked through the logic yesterday. I didn't deep dive percents from other markets, I just gut checked. I think it was odd, but I'm holding my NO shares bc I was prob wrong on enough to flip it even

There's a lot of copa america / euro final conditions, so I don't think it's possible to really be confident in the resolution until those games are played. Also thinking odd but I have no idea how to calculate the expected variance, and a few outcomes have pushed up my EV towards ~5.5 so it may be a legit coin toss

How much is hanging on the poor Jimmy Carter

I love that condition three has the line about incorrect parentheses and then goes on to have incorrect parentheses:

OR (((The Euro final is 0-0 in regular time) OR (Spain scores a penalty kick in the Euro final)) AND ((Israel has not invaded Lebanon in 2024) AND (A ceasefire in Gaza has not been declared in 2024))

OR (Someone dies of H51N1 bird flu in America in 2024)

OR (Trump and Biden agree to a golf match)

OR ((The S&P 500 is up on July 12) AND (Taylor Swift has not endorsed Joe Biden for the 2024 US presidential election) AND (Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released))

OR (Noam Chomsky is dead)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

counting from that first quoted line, there's one extra open parenthesis

this issue seems prevalent. I'm seeing it other places, too. Will pull them together

condition one's first parenthesis group has an extra, right there in the very first word:

(((England

condition two has it in the second major statement:

OR ((Trump

condition five is super effed up. I suspect the Claude open parenthesis is extra, because there's nowhere for it to reasonably close:

((Condition Three is false) AND ((Sonia Sotomayor announces retirement from the Supreme Court in 2024) OR ((Claude 3.5 Haiku has not released))

and then there's an extra open parenthesis a couple lines down at "The Euro":

OR ((The Euro final goes to extra time) AND (I ask the random number generator bot to generate a number from 1 to 3 and it picks 3)

OR (Grok 2 has been released)

OR (The price of gold on https://goldprice.org is above $35 on July 15 at 8:35 UTC)

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

condition six is straight up missing a close parenthesis in the second-to-last condition:

OR (Joe Biden has announced he will drop out of the presidential race and endorse Kamala Harris

OR (Jimmy Carter is dead)

and back to the classics, condition eight's first parenthesis never closes:

((More goals

Fixed these. I guess Condition Three is probably resolving YES now...

Thanks

maybe! still needs to be voted most obnoxious lol

I think it needs to be voted not most obnoxious, which is currently winning

oh you're right. how obnoxious 😄

tl;dr&bdteo

(too long; didn't read and bet down towards even odds)

solid move. I don't think this one is a coin flip but I've only bothered to work thru like 20% of the logic so far

Most of the conditions are dominated by one or two main probabilities with a bunch of little ones that probably won't resolve YES. I calculated an EV of 5 true but not sure what deviation we'd expect and how likely 4 / 6 is

@Stralor did you continue to solve this puzzle? What precision did you approximate each elementary statement to, or did you actually go to take values from markets?

I haven't walked through it yet! I didn't realize how short a window this will be open for! I thought I had more time

evil laughing

Will the horrendously complicated description of this market cause it to resolve YES?

No, the description of a market doesn't cause resolution. Only the market creator resolving the market, or an admin resolving it on their behalf.

I knew someone would be pedantic about the market title. Would "Will this market resolve YES according to the horribly complicated resolution criteria in the description" make you happy?

No, changing the title won't give me more mana, which is the only thing that makes me happy.