Recent reporting indicates Trump has rewritten his RNC speech and intends to try and be more of a unifying figure. Many are skeptical, but some are not, saying that "near death experiences can change people".
This market resolves YES if, in my opinion, Trump's political rhetoric on August 13 is more conciliatory than it was on July 13. I will not trade in this market, and you shouldn't either if you don't trust me to resolve fairly. This market can resolve to a percentage if I have mixed feelings about how it should resolve.
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A selection of quotes from Trump's August 12 interview with Elon Musk:
"These people are fake. Now they’re also saying they did a good job in the border. We had the worst numbers in the history of the world, not of our country. There’s never been a country in history that has had a catastrophe like this. We’ve had, I believe, and I think you believe this too, you hear 12 million, 13, I believe it’s over 20 million people came into our country. Many coming from jails, from prisons, from mental institutions, or a bigger version of that is insane asylums. And many are terrorists. And I’ll tell you what, they’re coming not just from South America, they’re coming from Africa. They’re coming from all over the world. They’re coming from Asia. They’re coming from the Middle East. They’re coming from countries that are stupidly and horribly bombing Israel, October 7th. They’re coming from all over the world. And you look at, it’s so sad, October 7th, because it should have never happened."
"What I can tell you is this, we cannot have a Democrat. We cannot have her. She’s incompetent. She’s as bad as Biden in a different… She hasn’t done an interview since this whole scam started and say what you want. This was a coup. This was coup of a President of the United States. He didn’t want to leave. They said, “We can do it the nice way or we can do it the hard way.”"
"Oh, what they did with this guy. I’m no fan of his, and he was a horrible president, the worst president in history."
"So I had a good relationship with Putin despite the Russia, Russia, Russia hoax that lasted for over two years. Just a hoax created by Hillary Clinton and Adam Shifty Schiff. Some just bad people, just sick people frankly. I mean, Schiff is a sick person."
"She’s not a smart person, by the way. She can’t have this conversation. And Biden, we don’t even have to talk about it. He couldn’t have this conversation. He would’ve given up on the first half of a question. He would’ve walked out. He would’ve said, “Where am I? Where am I going?” So anyway, but no, he wouldn’t have this."
To nobody's surprise, I'm resolving this NO - Trump seems to be launching just as many attacks as before, and there's no sign of unifying rhetoric like people were predicting last month.
RNC speech transcript: https://www.scrible.com/app/pdf-viewer/#docUid=72IO0C0LH006036034S3G9BS0848IG82&entryId=1163360220
And here's the most balanced coverage of it I could find:
The relevant bit:
Trump made repeated references to electoral "cheating" by Democrats in the 2020 election, despite a lack of evidence presented to courts to back up the incendiary claims.
There was no mention of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol, or the championing of those convicted of crimes related to the violence on Capitol Hill as "hostages". Trump cheered the dismissal of the classified documents criminal case against him and lambasted the prosecutions against him as "witch hunts."
But he didn't call the federal prosecutor "deranged" or attack the judges handling the cases against him.
All in all, the speech was a marked change in tone but not in substance. Not as fiery, certainly, but just as crimson red.
@SaviorofPlant for clarity on the resolution criteria: if you were to resolve this now as opposed to Aug 1st, how would you resolve it?