When will Tropical Storm Dalila form? (EP)
5
250Ṁ2270
resolved Jun 13
100%99.0%
June 13
0.1%
June 10
0.1%
June 11
0.1%
June 12
0.2%
June 14
0.1%
June 15
0.1%
June 16
0.1%
June 17
0.1%
June 18
0.1%Other

Resolves according to advisory text UTC time

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@SaviorofPlant ...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM DALILA...

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPEP4+shtml/131731.shtml

It really looked like a TS for the last several hours but the objective data has been right on the margins. I suppose we'll see in the discussion if the TAFB subjective dvorak values pushed it over the edge or whether they just blended everything together to get 34kt (MTCSWA did have a 37kt, but the other objective measures were around 30-37kt; last subjective dvorak were around 30kt).

I really expected the ASCAT-B pass to have some TS level barbs but it didn't have any at all.

The HY2B from earlier did have a couple of 34 kt points but they are rain flagged so should probably exclude them

(for some reason KNMI didn't flag one of the 34 kt barbs as such; don't know why -- maybe its a bug in my program or possibly theirs?):

Now Potential TC 4:

NHC predicting a TS tomorrow (13th):

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDEP4+shtml/122044.shtml

I've also created a market for the storm that would follow after Dalila:

Invest 93 has been opened

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