What will happen in the courtroom during Trump's Manhattan trial? [ADD ANSWERS]
Standard
120
Ṁ33k
resolved May 30
Resolved
YES
A Trump tweet will be presented as evidence by the prosecution
Resolved
YES
Social media posts of any witness will be shared during cross-examination
Resolved
YES
Trump will be found to have violated a gag order
Resolved
YES
The judge will allow Trump to attend Barron's graduation on May 17
Resolved
YES
Melania will be mentioned
Resolved
YES
A voice recording of Trump will be presented as evidence
Resolved
YES
Trump will appear to fall asleep (again)
Resolved
YES
Barack Obama will be mentioned
Resolved
YES
A witness called after Hope Hicks will cry during testimony
Resolved
YES
A tweet by Michael Cohen will be presented as evidence
Resolved
YES
Hillary Clinton will be mentioned
Resolved
YES
The defense will start presenting evidence by May 15
Resolved
NO
Jury deliberations will take at least three days
Resolved
NO
The jury will find Trump not guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts
Resolved
NO
Jury deliberations will last less than one full day
Resolved
NO
The defense will present any recording of Trump as evidence
Resolved
NO
Joe Biden will be mentioned
Resolved
NO
Trump will violate the gag order again on May 7 or later and be punished with another fine
Resolved
NO
A Trump tweet will be presented as evidence by the defense
Resolved
NO
The defense will ask that Trump be charged with a misdemeanor instead of a felony

Tweets from a reporter seeing the trial in person are sufficient to resolve answers. Transcripts can also be found here: https://ww2.nycourts.gov/press/index.shtml

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Jury deliberations will last less than one full day

Jury dismissed for today, does this resolve NO?

Jury deliberations will take at least three days
sold Ṁ12 Jury deliberations w... NO

FYI, I am interpreting this as "three separate days in the courthouse", not "three full days". If jurors deliberate Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday and reach a verdict midday Friday, this resolves YES

reposted

I will be closing this market after closing arguments finish. Place your final bets now

The jury will find Trump not guilty of at least one of the 34 felony counts

I don't understand why this is so high - from what I understand, all 34 counts are effectively the same thing, with one invoice / check / ledger entry for each payment to Cohen

I haven't read all the transcripts in full, but there's no coverage of any witness mentioning this. Will resolve NO if nobody sends me evidence in a couple days that this happened

KolyinsoldṀ7Answer #59a2afd00916 YES

This can resolve no, thanks.

@ClubmasterTransparent The defense is cross-examining Cohen, but he is still a witness that the prosecution has called, so we are still in the "prosecution calls witnesses" phase of the trial. Should probably have been more clear about what this meant as "the prosecution will call their last witness" is a plausible interpretation of that answer

@SaviorofPlant Thanks. I thought it meant literally CALLING witnesses, as in, saying “The People call Wetness X.” If Cohen is the last prosecution witness then prosecution is not going to call any more witnesses. Agree that we are still in “prosecution witnesses” stage and not yet at “defense can call witnesses” stage.

@Kolyin What did you mean by this? I can edit the response still

@SaviorofPlant I have no memory of writing that at all! I think I must have accidentally entered a new answer while searching for "Melania," to see the market on her appearance.

@Kolyin Nobody has bet on it yet, so if you want me to edit it to literally anything, I can do that and we can avoid getting a mod involved to N/A it

@SaviorofPlant Thanks! How about, "The cross examination of Michael Cohen will conclude before the lunch break on Thursday, May 16."

A tweet by Michael Cohen will be presented as evidence
reposted

New options: Will Melania attend? Will defense call an expert witness?

You heard it here first! On the QT, on the down-low, and very Hush-Hush!

(for any James Ellroy fans out there)

A witness called after Hope Hicks will cry during testimony
bought Ṁ139 A witness called aft... YES

@ClubmasterTransparent Wow, that was fast

We are getting close with more of prosecution to go. He has been mouthing words during her testimony and the judge has warned his attorneys.

@ClubmasterTransparent Yeah, this was very close to resolving YES: https://pdfs.nycourts.gov/PeopleVs.DTrump-71543/Transcripts/5-7-2024/00099.html

This isn't enough because his attorneys were warned, and the wording of the option implies Trump himself has to be directly warned

Related and getting popular

Not sure if this counts: a motion for a mistrial counts as court proceedings, but it's unclear whether proceedings were ongoing when this happened or if there was a natural pause between the motion and the trial resuming. Will check the transcript

@SaviorofPlant Is anyone other than Haberman even calling Trump’s exit a “storm out”? Not all even mention it. Maybe he just ducked out for the restroom and looked grumpy,

@ClubmasterTransparent This is the only source, I will only resolve YES if the transcript indicates he left abruptly during proceedings

@ClubmasterTransparent No indication of this in the transcript.

bought Ṁ3 Answer #fee6bce74968 NO

3 minutes ago

Maggie Haberman

Reporting from inside the courthouse

This is a good moment to remind people that we have no idea how the jury is interpreting any of this. There is lots of circumstantial evidence that decisions didn’t get made on spending without Trump, and that Michael Cohen made a payment to a porn star, and said later it was better the story didn’t come out before the election. But there has been no direct testimony tying Trump to how the payments were recorded yet.

We're still at zero.