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I think I was the biggest Cat 5 holder but still lost mana overall... put too much on the spread based mostly on the NHC advisories ...

Shame this closed early.

I like if there are both types though, at least in this predictive case you have less chance to lose to update/betting races.

There's live markets for both whether it will hit C5 and the strength in the Gulf of Mexico, if you still want to trade on intensity

Follow-up market: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-be-the-maximum-strength-o-yvfe69r47f?r=U2F2aW9yb2ZQbGFudA

NHC official forecast now shows Category 4. The strongest June hurricane ever recorded in the Atlantic was 1957's Hurricane Audrey, which was a Category 3 storm with a central pressure of 946 mb.

Edit.v4: oblig. eye (CIRA geo-color - 2024-06-30-08:56Z)

As it's now a cat1, my final v4 probabilities (edit averaged two sets for different times):

CAT2: 10.8 %

CAT3: 37.5 %

CAT4: 45.8 %

CAT5: 5.9 %

Fix from TAFB 18Z puts it at Cat 1 strength:

AL, 02, 202406291800,  10, DVTS,         CI,  , 1000N,  4850W,      , 3,  65, 2,  987, 2, DVRK,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    , L,  TAFB,  AL,   VI, 5, 4040 /////,      ,   , GOES16,  CSC, T, 

It's notably higher than the objective dvorak and SATCON. I've only seen OSPO's (MTCSWA) from 15Z with similar max wind speeds:

r u a storm expert :0

No.

I wonder if there is any other market class (in terms of predictive questions) outside of Weather forecasting that has such an immense glut of publicly available, real time and historical data for which to practice making predictions while also having a 'good' amount of chances to make regular predictions. In short, it's good practice.

What do u think abt sports?

Too long and disorganized are my thoughts on this, but anecdotally the perceived benefits I got from sports was more in making fast updates and predictions, where as the weather was more to the slow, reflective updating. I think you do the first (the fast type) more often and the second type more rarely in terms of number of predictions (not effort/time spent). I don't which would be more valuable personally/professionally to people.

Thanks for sharing!

NHC official forecast now shows a Cat 3, and microwave imagery shows a low-level eye forming. Seems likely that this storm will begin to rapidly intensify today

Closing at the end of the day, place your bets now