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The FiveThirtyEight average is still not available. I'll wait until it comes up and use the backdated value for August 1st, unless there is no backdated value for August 1st, in which case I'll use the RCP average for the day (currently Trump +1.4).

RCP: Trump +1.2

FiveThirtyEight: Harris +1.2

Final resolution: dead even

Closes today, get your bets in now

If the 538 average is not up, I'll wait until it comes up to resolve the market. If it eventually comes online and doesn't have a value for August 1st, RCP alone will be used

https://fxtwitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1816600936657138076

@SaviorofPlant I screwed up making the buckets - this one is twice as big as the other ones. The others are 1%-1.9%, 2%-2.9%, etc. but this one ranges from Trump +0.9 to Harris +0.9, a 2% range.

I can probably rename this one to Even (Leans Harris) and create a new Even (Leans Trump) bucket but there are 10 YES holders on this one already, so if anyone wants me to leave it the same I can do that

Big question here is whether Harris gets a "honeymoon" from favorable coverage in the next week