I will average the margins from these pages and round down to resolve the market:
https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/national/
For example, Trump +1.5 resolves to Trump +1
@SaviorofPlant I screwed up making the buckets - this one is twice as big as the other ones. The others are 1%-1.9%, 2%-2.9%, etc. but this one ranges from Trump +0.9 to Harris +0.9, a 2% range.
I can probably rename this one to Even (Leans Harris) and create a new Even (Leans Trump) bucket but there are 10 YES holders on this one already, so if anyone wants me to leave it the same I can do that
Big question here is whether Harris gets a "honeymoon" from favorable coverage in the next week