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Plugging the next hurricane market here:

Koinu is consolidating for now, even though it was forecast to be weakened by the dry NE monsoon soon after passing through Taiwan.

From JTWC (I de-all-capped it):

Satellite analysis, initial position and intensity discussion: animated multispectral satellite imagery (MSI) depicts typhoon (ty) 14W rapidly intensifying, tightening in horizontal structure and exposing a clear, very symmetric eye of 10nm diameter. The highly favorable environment was realized by ty 14W, which took full advantage of the warm sea surface temperatures (29-30 degrees Celsius) and low vertical wind shear (5-10kts). A 060600z himawari-9 enhanced infrared image showed the coolest cloud tops to be very symmetrically and tightly displaced just 30nm outward from the center of the eye. The compact nature of the system certainly aided in the rapid intensification process. Overshooting cloud tops persist, suggesting intensification is ongoing. The initial position is placed with high confidence based on a 060600Z Himawari-9 Cira- Proxyvis image showing an unobscured eye. The initial intensity of 100 kts is assessed with medium confidence based on uniform subjective Dvorak intensity estimates and objective intensity estimates listed below.

This market has been resolved to YES as CWA announcements and other corroborating data from JTWC and various observations all supported a brief but extant landfall in the vicinity of Eluanbi.

Thank you so much for participating in this market, and as always for the high quality discussions that have been generated! I personally am still shocked how much of this came down to the wire, and this landfall literally happened at the very tip of the southernmost part of Taiwan and lasted for just 5 minutes. Such a nail biter, I suspect it has to be in the records as one of briefest cyclonic landfalls...

Anyway, see you all next time!

@SarkanyVar I was sleeping but the prognostic reasoning for JTWC did explicitly mention landfall (can see it in the google search results only since I can't find archives of these files):

"FORECAST DISCUSSION: AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, TY 14W HAS QUICKLY CROSSED THE NARROWEST PORTION OF THE ISLAND AND IS ALREADY MOVING BACK OVER T"

https://youtu.be/v9fkOY4yT_E

CWA says the meandering on the sea continues and the possibility for a second landfall cannot be excluded.

Seems like it's from over an hour ago. The center of the typhoon seems way to the west now.

@SarkanyVar Yeah it's from earlier. Also the CWA has a interactive (GIS) map that shows landfall more clearly (or clearer than that blurry pixels from that zoomed in warning): https://app.cwa.gov.tw/web/obsmap/typhoon-en.html

New JTWC warning #23 with position and fix inland

WTPN31 PGTW 050300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNING NR 023//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNING NR 023    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   050000Z --- NEAR 22.0N 120.8E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF 
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            200 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.0N 120.8E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   051200Z --- 22.2N 120.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 22.4N 118.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 220 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 22.5N 117.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 22.3N 116.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 22.0N 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   090000Z --- 21.1N 114.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   100000Z --- 19.5N 112.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
050300Z POSITION NEAR 22.1N 120.6E.
05OCT23. TYPHOON 14W (KOINU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 050000Z IS 
945 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 050000Z IS 37 FEET. 
NEXT WARNINGS AT 050900Z, 051500Z, 052100Z AND 060300Z.
//
NNNN

The position above is inland even if it is only 1 decimal point

The satellite fix (23:30 UTC) is also inland (which is when I mentioned below it looked inland from radar and satellite):

https://www.metoc.navy.mil/jtwc/products/wp1423fix.txt

TPPN10 PGTW 050016 

A. TYPHOON 14W (KOINU)

B. 04/2330Z

C. 21.95N

D. 120.84E

E. THREE/GK2A

F. T5.0/6.0/W0.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG YIELDS 
AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.0. MET YIELDS 6.0. PT YIELDS 
5.0. DBO DT. DVORAK VALUES UNAVAILABLE DUE TO PROXIMITY TO LAND.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   04/2029Z  21.73N  121.15E  SSMS
   04/2031Z  21.75N  121.17E  SSMS


   RAE

The prognostic discussion is dated earlier than this so maybe the next discussion will mention it.

According to the discussions below, the media announcement of CWA and track area product support a YES resolution for this market (very, very close). I will leave the market open until Taiwan time 3pm on the 5th. If any of you have comments or disagreements regarding the resolution, please do let me know below.

@parhizj It’s down to pixels and antialiasing lol

@parhizj Goodness me 🙈 Well, I will see to it later when I am near a computer. Though I think since a CWA forecaster had said so, it already counts as a condition-fulfilling announcement. But it's interesting too to bust out the ruler too and check.

as JTWC doesn’t really archive their warnings afaik, and the website doesn’t seem to be updating, here is the advisory from earlier so we can do a track from something other than best tracks or tcvitals https://www.cyclocane.com/koinu-storm-tracker/

WTPN31 PGTW 042100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNING NR 022//

RMKS/

1. TYPHOON 14W (KOINU) WARNING NR 022

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

---

WARNING POSITION:

041800Z --- NEAR 21.9N 121.2E

MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS

POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM

POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF

SATELLITE AND RADAR

PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

REPEAT POSIT: 21.9N 121.2E

---

FORECASTS:

12 HRS, VALID AT:

050600Z --- 22.2N 120.3E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

24 HRS, VALID AT:

051800Z --- 22.3N 119.1E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS

---

36 HRS, VALID AT:

060600Z --- 22.3N 117.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS

---

EXTENDED OUTLOOK:

48 HRS, VALID AT:

061800Z --- 22.3N 116.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 02 KTS

---

72 HRS, VALID AT:

071800Z --- 22.1N 115.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 03 KTS

---

LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:

---

96 HRS, VALID AT:

081800Z --- 21.6N 114.9E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT

000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT

000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 04 KTS

---

120 HRS, VALID AT:

091800Z --- 20.6N 113.8E

MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT

WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY

DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER

---

REMARKS:

042100Z POSITION NEAR 22.0N 121.0E.

04OCT23. TYPHOON 14W (KOINU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 193 NM SOUTH

OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 041800Z IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM

SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 44 FEET.

NEXT WARNINGS AT 050300Z, 050900Z, 051500Z AND 052100Z.

//

NNNN

@SarkanyVar zoomed in

JTWC finally has advisory (#22) from much earlier on their website:

I did some GIMP work and overlaid a cleaner CWA map on it, then drew a green line along the center line of the typhoon path (a bit to the south because there are only like 4 pixels). The green line does touch the last pixel of Formosa to the south.

Less graphically, the warnings of 0830 and 0915 both have the latitude at 21.9N. Southernmost point of Eluanbi is at 21.898N, so by interpolation it roughly skimmed over the north of this point by about 250m...

https://news.tvbs.com.tw/life/2263586

https://news.ltn.com.tw/news/life/breakingnews/4448994

Several Taiwanese media cite CWA that the typhoon landed briefly in Eluanbi at 8:20.

快訊／兇猛「小犬」8：20登陸鵝鑾鼻　不排除二度登陸│TVBS新聞網

小犬颱風持續影響台灣，暴風圈昨晚籠罩蘭嶼，帶來每秒95.2公尺、超過17級強陣風，突破台灣126年紀錄。中央氣象署今（5）日指出，小犬已於上午8點20分掠過和登陸鵝鑾鼻，約停留5分鐘後又離開陸地出海，不僅是今年第2個登陸的颱風，也打破近5年來颱風登陸台灣最多紀錄，未來不排除兩度登陸，後續會持續觀察颱風路徑。

https://www.setn.com/m/news.aspx?newsid=1363085

氣象署預報員劉沛滕表示，小犬掠過鵝鑾鼻、擦過沿海，中心登陸、出海約同時間發生。

Liu Peiteng, a forecaster of CWA, said that Koinu skimmed over Eluanbi, and brushed over the coast, and the centre landed and went out to sea at about the same time.

Looks like a YES to me, but I will wait a bit for the official track area product later for corroboration.

This is crazy close!

@parhizj Taiwanese media are calling this puppy 'mad dog' - Quite apt seeing how it's breaking a lot of records. 70% of the ships within the Lanyu harbor had sunk...

@parhizj 'Illustration of Koinu landfall' from the Taiwanese internet.