Will my fremb X build a crypto app within 3 month
54%
chance
Sep 4
M$62 bet
Jun 3, 12:33pm: Dude is 18yo and goes to MIT. I shilled him hard.
PeterBerggren
Peter Berggren bought M$10 of NO
On the one hand, I have an account from an acquaintance of their childhood friend's roommate that they're coordinating with someone else about this project. On the other hand, I have an account from the son of a professor they know that they're very busy ATM and so the timeline may be closer to a year on this project. 65% seems too high here.
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hamnox
What kind of crypto app? What counts as complete?
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SapphireStar
@hamnox Hard to define. but certainly anything with users. He is probably going to do a a dominant assurance contract version of Kickstarter.
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Austin
Hehe, one more use case for Manifold to tackle someday. DACs seem to be super popular among the public goods crowd, so their lack of actual adoption is somewhat puzzling. But then again, you could say the same about prediction markets....
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SapphireStar
He is smart and seems to update really fast. Good bayesian.
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