Will my fremb X build a crypto app within 3 month
3
16
Ṁ102
resolved Dec 17
Resolved
NO
Jun 3, 12:33pm: Dude is 18yo and goes to MIT. I shilled him hard.
Get Ṁ200 play money

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@traders Does anyone know whether this happened?

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel I was the friend in question and didn’t build it. I have since realized that it’s probably easier to build what I wanted as an ordinary app.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel It didn’t happen.

predicted NO

@EvanDaniel It didn't happen.

@PeterBerggren Thanks!

@SapphireStar Did they build it?

bought Ṁ10 of NO
On the one hand, I have an account from an acquaintance of their childhood friend's roommate that they're coordinating with someone else about this project. On the other hand, I have an account from the son of a professor they know that they're very busy ATM and so the timeline may be closer to a year on this project. 65% seems too high here.
What kind of crypto app? What counts as complete?
@hamnox Hard to define. but certainly anything with users. He is probably going to do a a dominant assurance contract version of Kickstarter.
Hehe, one more use case for Manifold to tackle someday. DACs seem to be super popular among the public goods crowd, so their lack of actual adoption is somewhat puzzling. But then again, you could say the same about prediction markets....
He is smart and seems to update really fast. Good bayesian.

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