Sam's calibration
Grade: B+, Score: -1.09
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sam bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will NAATU NAATU from RRR; Music by M.M. Keeravaani; Lyric by Chandrabose win the Oscars for original song ?YESṀ100
- Will the Australian Official Cash Rate be increased when the RBA Board Meets on the 7th of NovemberYESṀ100
- 17. At the end of 2023, will prediction markets say Donald Trump is the most likely Republican nominee for President in 2024?YESṀ100
90%