WE ARE RESOLVED

@SamE gg!

@strutheo omg @AmmonLam

@strutheo @AmmonLam Now that you're both flush with mana, up for a 5,000 mana buy-in poker game?

@houstonEuler Yea sure

@SamE @creator resolves NO, thanks.

4:20 pm EST (eg. Kingston) = 21:20 UTC

@chrisjbillington I can't ping the author since the user search pop-up feature can't find this user. They seem inactive all week.

@deagol report it to the mods maybe this market should have resolved yesterday.

@AndrewCrosse it closes soon, which will send the creator a notification prompting them to resolve it. We'll give the creator a chance to resolve it themselves before modresolving.

As the EST time zone does not exist in the month of April, I think the only objective resolution is to N/A this market.

@houstonEuler Yah wase a time, scabby man. Yuzeet 🇯🇲 https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zone/jamaica

@houstonEuler Tiburón qué buscas en la orilla, tiburón respeta mi bandera. 🇵🇦

https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zone/panama/panama

😜

@houstonEuler How di boy deh ah act so doltish? 🇰🇾

https://www.timeanddate.com/time/zone/cayman-islands

🤪 sorry for your loss, just messin around. Nice try tho!

@deagol is a yaad man this or u just rate Jamaica.

@AndrewCrosse sorry, can’t parse that (no, I’m not Jamaican). Just pointing out the glaring parochialism in assuming EST only applies in the US.

@deagol lol I get that I have to tell people this all the time with my markets they think all EST has daylight savings

@AndrewCrosse so you real yaad man? or cayman, panama, cancun? few options there.

I’m in Caracas, our own named timezone UTC-4 now coincides with EDT but a bit limbo in the winter (same offset as parts of Brazil, Bolivia, Paraguay, Chile, Cuba [scratch those only in summer], Guyana, AST [most of the Caribbean, NE of Canada])

@deagol I'm somewhat a yard man. I live in Jamaica but I'm an American so I'm both really.

@AndrewCrosse hey we're all american :) (the continent, maybe cliché still truth)

Seriously guys, BTC random jumps 5-10k all the time, 2% chance? Buying the dip any day

At least make me regret not selling at 50% if it doesn't happen

@barbarous it can but right now it's going up roughly 1k a day. So it's not very likely. The only profit u can make in this market right now is to hope your not the last person to buy yes before everyone sells lol. I'm gonna try and make back the money I lost here in the will Bitcoin be above 66k at the end of April market

@AndrewCrosse For the record I did 0 analysis and intend to lose it all or win big :)

@barbarous me too I lost a lot in this market.

@AndrewCrosse The long-term Bitcoin trend right now is down.

If you're buying these markets betting on higher prices, just as if you were betting on higher prices in the real money markets, then you are more likely to lose money than not. You should only bet against the trend if there is a substantial overshoot and mean reversion is likely - such as those drops to $59,500.

Otherwise, trade with the trend, which right now is to short. The odds are better than not that you'll make money, and bitcoin almost always returns to the same price eventually.

The big issue with shorting is that you can only do it from 8pm Sunday to 8pm Friday, and the big crashes during the past few weeks occurred on Saturdays. I would have closed those at the perfect time, and only made $3000 on a trade closing Monday where I could have made $20,000 if I were rich enough to be an "accredited investor."

But on Manifold, you can bet short and close any time you want, so why bet long during a downtrend?

@SteveSokolowski thanks for the knowledge I've been on this app for about a month now so I'm learning a bunch about trading and stuff.