Sabrina Caine's calibration
Grade: A, Score: -0.24
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Sabrina Caine bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
- Will there be a high-profile scandal involving AI generated papers submitted as schoolwork before the end of 2023?YESṀ20
- Will every digit 0-9 appear in the S&P 500 closing price for 15 days from Oct 2 - Oct 20?YESṀ10
- Will Elon Musk's ChatGPT competitor, TruthGPT (or whatever it ends up being called) be out by the end of Q1 2024?YESṀ10
97%