Will Jimmy Carter last longer than Manifold.love?
46
430
790
resolved Mar 9
Resolved
YES

Resolves YES if Manifold.love shuts down (or we make the decision to no longer actively develop it) and Jimmy Carter is still alive. Resolve NO if Carter dies before a shutdown.

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sold Ṁ22 YES

Mods were asked to resolve this, per the community guidelines 3/3 mods that looked at it agreed it should resolve yes.

The description says that either a shutdown or the decision to actively stop development counts if Jimmy is still alive, and he is.

@Joshua I think it clearly does not say this. Why didn't we wait to hear from the market creator?

@AndrewHebb Mods are encouraged to resolve staff markets, since staff is often too busy to. SG can of course re-resolve if his intent really was to only count a permanent shutdown.

bought Ṁ69 YES
bought Ṁ20 NO

@Tumbles "No longer" to me implies never again. This article is describing a temporary halt.

@AndrewHebb any project can be restarted or revisited after it is shelved. The description specifically says it resolves YES if Manifold stops active development.

@Tumbles That's not what it says.

@AndrewHebb Manifold has made the decision to stop actively developing manifold.love. The description says shuts down OR active development stops.

Can you describe a hypothetical statement Manifold could release that announces they are stopping active development that would satisfy you? What else would they have to say to make this qualify as deciding to stop active development? The description clearly implies manifold.love doesn't have to shut down entirely

@Tumbles The description says they must decide to permanently stop development, which they have not done. They have announced they are stopping development for now and hope to continue development later. If they had said they were stopping development for good, that would be grounds for a resolution.

@AndrewHebb the description does NOT say they must announce that the ending is permanent, you are adding that word. The description says manifold.love must shut down OR stop active development. They are unambiguously stopping active development, there is no requirement and no reason for them to swear off ever trying again in the future.

'No longer' does not imply "never ever again". When I wake up in the morning I am no longer sleeping. When I go outside I am no longer in my house. If I fall in a pool I am no longer dry.

This market resolves when a decision is made to stop active development. The decision has been made to stop active development. Very straightforward.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 79%

@Tumbles The meaning of words depends on their context. If I say I have decided to no longer drink alcohol, that doesn't mean I think I might start drinking again next week. It implies some intent not to drink in the future. If instead I said I am stopping for now but hope to continue again soon, that means something different.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

If only I still had public interest subsidy mana left

sold Ṁ10 of YES

Resolves N/A if both are alive at the end of 2024.

why?

@jskf Since this question was just created, I can remove this and extend the close time.