Leveraged (Feb 10): Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?
7
3
Ṁ642resolved Feb 10
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves PROB with the leveraged probability of @NiclasKupper's market "Will Russia invade Ukrainian territory in 2022?" ( https://manifold.markets/NiclasKupper/will-russia-invade-ukrainian-territ ) at midnight CT on Feb 10, 2022.
Definition of leveraged probability: Let p_start be the implied probability of the underlying at the time of the creation of this market (i.e. 58%), and let p_end be the implied probability of the underlying at the end of this market (Feb 10). If p_end > = p_start, then the leveraged probability used for the settlement of this contract is p_start + sqrt(p_end - p_start). If p_end < p_start, then the leveraged probability is p_start - sqrt(p_start - p_end). If the leveraged probability is greater than 99.5%, this contract will resolve YES; if less than 0.5%, NO. #derivatives #gamma #leverage #RussiaUkraine
Feb 10, 12:18am: The implied probability of the underlying contract at midnight was 78%. Since .58 + sqrt(.78 - .58) > 1, this contract resolves YES. Market behavior looks a little suspicious though...
Get Ṁ200 play money
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ51 | |
| 2 | Ṁ50 | |
| 3 | Ṁ20 |
Related questions
Related questions
[Metaculus] Will Russia have significantly expanded its controlled territory in Ukraine on January 1, 2026?
35% chance
Will Ukraine invade any additional "minor constituent" (check description) of the Russian Federation before 2030-1-1?
21% chance
Will the Russian Federation invade a NATO country before 2028?
33% chance