If a fight between the two does not occur in 2023, this will resolve N/A.
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@Lorxus I bought NO as insurance in case the fight happens. Either I get a tiny profit, or a billionaire gets a broken bone in a fight. Win-win!
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5315252/
If I’m reading this right, the base rate is between 22 and 28 percent. Though I think the odds in this particular fight are probably a bit lower. Musk seems to take his personal security very seriously (as demonstrated by hiring personal bodyguards,) implying he also would be risk averse when it comes to physical combat.
@nottelling2ccc isn't this per 100 fights? I'd be very surprised if every fifth fight resulted in a broken bone.
@Nikola Well, I'm wrong, but the study you showed measures injuries, not broken bones. "review of 171 MMA matches in Nevada from 2001 to 2004 demonstrated that MMA athletes had an injury rate of 28.6 per 100 fight-participations: 47.9% were facial lacerations, 13.5% hand injuries, 10.4% nasal injuries, and 8.3% ocular injuries"
Facial laterations aren't broken bones. Hand injuries seem to most of the time be fractures, which seem to count as broken bones? Nose injuries too. Some papers say 28 per 100 incidence, others say 17 per 100. I'm going to be conservative (using slightly different probabilities) and say:
P(broken bone) ~ P(injury) x (P(hand | injury) x 0.8 + P(nose |injury) x 0.9) = 0.25 x (0.15 x 0.8 + 0.07 x 0.9) = 4.58%
@Nikola Risk might be higher because they're not trained boxers (makes hand fractures more likely) and older than the average boxer (late thirties, compared to 39 and 52). Risk might be lower than base rate because they're billionaires and have more money and are more careful about sustaining injury. I think these roughly cancel each other out.