Resolution criteria

As of February 2026, Kurt Cobain's death remains classified as a suicide. This market resolves YES if, by December 31, 2026, there is an official breakthrough in the case—defined as either: (1) the King County Medical Examiner's Office or Seattle Police Department reopens the investigation, or (2) official authorities issue a revised determination of manner of death. The market resolves NO if no such official action occurs by year-end 2026.

Background

Kurt Cobain was found dead in his Seattle home on April 5, 1994. A new forensic analysis was published in 2026, more than 30 years after Cobain's death. A team of forensic scientists is challenging the official suicide ruling, arguing that evidence suggests Cobain may have been forced to ingest a lethal heroin overdose before being shot with a shotgun. Burnett and Wilkins are part of an unofficial private sector team of forensic scientists. Their findings "revealed signs inconsistent with an instantaneous gunshot death." Despite the new claims, the King County Medical Examiner's Office and the Seattle Police Department have said that the case will remain closed.

Considerations

The King County Public Health spokesperson stated "Our office is always open to revisiting its conclusions if new evidence comes to light," but "we've seen nothing to date that would warrant re-opening of this case." The forensic team's analysis is peer-reviewed but comes from private researchers rather than official investigators, and authorities have explicitly rejected reopening the case despite the new report.

This description was generated by AI.