Will at least one US state print ballots without listing Donald Trump due to Section 3 of the 14th Amendment?

#US Politics #Politics #2024 US Presidential Election #Trump #Republican Party #SCOTUS #Trump disqualified from running

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This NYTimes article speculates that Donald Trump may be ineligible to run for elected office due to his role in the Jan 6 insurrection. Stephen Calebresi is quoted: "Trump is ineligible to be on the ballot, and each of the 50 state secretaries of state has an obligation to print ballots without his name on them."

From the linked paper:

"Section Three of the Fourteenth Amendment forbids holding office by former office holders who then participate in insurrection or rebellion....in particular, it disqualifies former President Donald Trump, and potentially many others, because of their participation in the attempted overthrow of the 2020 presidential election."

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sold Ṁ114 of YES

I've sold because I am not interested in whether Donald Trump's name is actually on the ballot or not, just whether he is actually disqualified. See this comment: https://manifold.markets/becauseyoudo/will-any-state-use-the-14-amendment#vn0KYEIa4y9lFdcWy0OB

Added this question to https://manifold.markets/news/trump-on-the-colorado-ballot

predicts YES

maine just today https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/28/maine-kicks-trump-off-ballot-under-14th-amendment-00133294

predicts YES

CA Lt Gov calls for Trump to be removed from CA ballot

https://abc7.com/president-donald-trump-california-elections-lieutenant-governor-colorado-supreme-court/14208249/

bought Ṁ30 of YES

colorado removed him from ballot https://www.cnn.com/2023/12/19/politics/trump-colorado-supreme-court-14th-amendment/index.html

bought Ṁ4 of NO

@strutheo the order's been stayed until the 4th (pending the supreme court weighing in), so this will come down to them affirming/rejecting

predicts NO

Update: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/group-sues-block-trump-2024-ballot-citing-14th/story?id=102964534

Group sues to block Trump from 2024 ballot in Colorado citing 14th Amendment and Jan. 6

CREW on Wednesday filed a lawsuit seeking to bar Trump from the 2024 ballot in Colorado under Section 3 of the 14th Amendment based on his alleged involvement in Jan. 6

What if a state prints the ballots without him, but a court orders them to redo them, or the decision is otherwise reversed, and the final ballot presented to voters does have his name?

predicts NO

@B I would consider this a "Yes" resolution.

bought Ṁ10 of NO

I'm assuming this resolves N/A in the case that Donald Trump is not the GOP nominee?

bought Ṁ10 of NO

@AndrewG Well, he could still run as a third-party candidate in that case. It resolves N/A if he is neither the GOP nominee or a third-party candidate.