Ryan's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -3.77
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ryan bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
1%
3%
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
- Will Houshou Marine get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 20th March, 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Usada Pekora get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 8th March, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Usada Pekora get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 8th March, 2023?YESṀ100
90%
- Will Usada Pekora get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 8th March, 2023?YESṀ100
- Will Shishiro Botan get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 11th March, 2023?NOṀ100
- Will Murasaki Shion get the highest peak concurrent viewers of any vtuber livestream on YouTube on 12th March, 2023?YESṀ100
95%