@RyanGuill is the end date meant to be in 2025?

No shot.

@SneakySly Bucko

I think the answer to this is NO, but that isn't based on any view about AI technology, just my view on the economics of making movies.

If you had a movie made by one person, it could potentially be pretty cheap, on the order of $100,000. But you'd still need to market the movie, especially if audiences aren't sold on the quality of AI movies. That would probably cost a few million dollars. If 90% of the cost of the movie is marketing, some money could be shifted away from marketing to making the movie. You could hire a second person, and get them to look for scenes that look bad and re-generate them.

For this to resolve YES, it needs to be not only possible to generate this with AI, but also not possible to improve the result by hiring a second person. (Or, returning to the marketing perspective, maybe the film being the product of a single director's vision is part of the appeal.)

you may also be interested in this other question of mine https://manifold.markets/RyanGuill/will-there-be-a-blockbuster-movie-i?r=Unlhbkd1aWxs

Will there be a blockbuster movie in the US before the end of 2025 that is acknowledged as written by AI

10% chance. Given the current writers strike and their concerns about AI content, will a "blockbuster" US movie be acknowledged as written by or significantly assisted an AI be released before the end of 2025? Defining a "blockbuster" as a movie who's production costs are at least 100M USD. Defining "written by or significantly assisted an AI" as a news article that describes how they used some sort of AI to write or help write a significant portion of the script. The movie must open in theaters before December 31st 2025.