Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years?

Basic

Ṁ90

2025

15%

chance

ALL

I currently think he seems quite wrong.

For context, I work at Redwood Research and I'm more sympathetic to views similar to Paul Christiano or views commonly discussed at Open Phil.

My guess at the probability of doom is more 30-40%.

This is resolved entirely based on subjective judgement.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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1,000

and

3.00

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