Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years? | Manifold

Will I think that Nate Soares was/is 'basically right' about discontinuous takeoff and the sharp left turn in 2 years?

3

110Ṁ90

Apr 26

15%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

I currently think he seems quite wrong.

For context, I work at Redwood Research and I'm more sympathetic to views similar to Paul Christiano or views commonly discussed at Open Phil.

My guess at the probability of doom is more 30-40%.

This is resolved entirely based on subjective judgement.

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Related questions

Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

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Will a "Sharp Left Turn" occur (as described by the Alignment Forum, Nate Soares, and Victoria Krakovna et. al.)?

Do you think there's going to be a hard takeoff?

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