Ryan Greenblatt's calibration
Grade: C+, Score: -5.03
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ryan Greenblatt bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
60%
- Will Gemini be widely considered better than GPT-4?NOṀ85
- [Redwood Research] Will we finish sufficient empirical work to write a paper for the monitoring project by 10/03?NOṀ40
- Will I think the 'detailed alignment plan for specific scenario' project was positive ex-post expected value in 1 month?YESṀ15
70%
- If Redwood Research releases an ELK benchmark paper, will I think it's great backchained empirical alignment research?YESṀ30
- Will I think running the Redwood Research Mechanistic Interpretability Experiment (REMIX) was +EV on March 1st 2023?YESṀ25
- [Redwood Research] Will we publish a paper for the control evaluations project by the end of Dec?YESṀ20
80%