Will a tropical storm make landfall in the continental US in November?

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resolved Dec 5

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NO

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2023 Hurricane Season

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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025?

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This market should not close until December 1st.

predictedYES

@RuthMilburn you can change the closing date

Shouldn't this market close on December 1st?

Base rate is 11.8% for 1991-2022:

ECMWF long range SEAS5 TS forecasts: Nov 2023-April 2024

~ 1 TS (+- 1) TS for Atlantic for Nov 2023-April 2024 (with only 1 or two 2 TS the chances are low)

~ 1.3 TS (+- 1.3) TS for East Pacific for Nov 2023-April 2024 (more storms but these are unlikely to make landfall)

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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025?

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Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the U.S. before the end of 2025?

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