Resolution criteria

• This market resolves to YES if the closing price of IBM (NYSE: IBM) on Friday, July 17, 2026, is strictly higher than its closing price on the previous Friday, July 10, 2026, which was $287.56.

• This market resolves to NO if the closing price of IBM on Friday, July 17, 2026, is less than or equal to $287.56.

• Resolution will be verified using historical closing price data from Yahoo Finance or Google Finance.

• If any corporate action such as a stock split or dividend distribution occurs during this period, the threshold will be adjusted to reflect the equivalent split-adjusted price.

Background

• IBM experienced a historic single-day stock price decline on Tuesday, July 14, 2026, plunging approximately 25% to trade around $218.69.

• The selloff was triggered by the unexpected release of disappointing preliminary second-quarter results. CEO Arvind Krishna reported that the company "faltered" in adjusting to changing market dynamics, as clients shifted their capital expenditures towards storage and hardware infrastructure ahead of anticipated price hikes.

• For the weekly change to end positive relative to the prior week's close of $287.56, the stock would need to recover by over 30% from its post-crash low by the end of Friday's regular trading session.

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