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@RonLangbergf332 I believe that No Interference should resolve YES, and the other options should resolve NO
@RonLangbergf332 does this resolve to No intereference already? See https://manifold.markets/JimAusman/was-there-foul-play-involved-in-the-921600f3aeff .
What is the line between no interference and other? So "no interference" is some 100% accident, and other is someone did something? What if some political rival of Raisi did something to make the helicopter rides slightly less safe (I think <5% unlikely but possible)? More plausibly, what if is it was totally an accident but someone made a stupid and rash decision?
I think I'm about 80% no interference (bought some no there just to arbitrage, and because I'm not actually sure what no interference means).
@nathanwei Yeah other is not in the list and no interference is “natural” or mechanical accident with no malice involved
@RonLangbergf332 I see you bought some Mossad. That seems very unlikely to me. Of course there is no evidence that the Mossad was involved. Granted it's early to tell but I bet that no evidence will come out. Even the Iranian government has not blamed the Mossad. Assassinating an Iranian president is not at all something that risk-averse Netanyahu would do. Helicopter crashes just happen sometimes.
@nathanwei Yeah they do but not all that much
This also looks rather sus with the timing of their attack a month ago
@RonLangbergf332 What does Israel have to gain by assassinating Raisi? They agreed with Biden that they would do a small retaliation and be allowed to invade Rafah. What, to distract the world from Rafah? It would be an extremely bold move. I don't think Netanyahu would do that. And anyway, helicopter crashes are not that uncommon.