Where'd you get the problem statistics? Thanks.

 Oops nevermind just checked Evan Chen doc.

"people are worse at geo than you think" - 

Resolves YES if and only if at least 20 contestants receive at least a 5 on USAMO 2024/5 (not USAJMO 2024/6), according to 

https://web.evanchen.cc/exams/posted-usamo-statistics.pdf

UPDATE 05/04: Evan recently revealed that exactly 1 point was earned on this problem among all JMO Top Honors and Honors contestants. This doesn't directly have any impact on this market, but it might give a clue.

#	Name	Total profit
1		Ṁ1,732
2		Ṁ234
3		Ṁ202
4		Ṁ191
5		Ṁ158

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