This market resolves on January 1, 2028 12:00am ET or earlier if resolution criteria are definitively met.

Resolves YES if:

The State of New Jersey, through official state government action, implements a policy or mechanism that meets ALL of the following conditions before January 1, 2028:

1. Official State Action: The action is taken through one or more of:

   • Executive order signed by the Governor

   • Legislation passed by the New Jersey Legislature and signed into law

   • Official directive from a state agency with explicit Governor approval

2. Tax Dollar Withholding: The state actively prevents, blocks, intercepts, or redirects federal tax revenue that would otherwise flow to the federal government, including but not limited to:

   • Withholding or redirecting IRS withholdings from state employee paychecks

   • Instructing state-chartered banks to block federal tax payments

   • Creating a state mechanism to intercept federal tax payments from residents or businesses

   • Refusing to remit collected payroll taxes to the federal government

   • Any other mechanism that demonstrably reduces federal tax revenue collection from New Jersey

3. Protest Intent: The official documentation (executive order, legislation, or official statement) explicitly states the action is in protest of or resistance to the Trump administration or federal policies.

4. Minimum Scale: The withheld amount must be at least $100 million annually or affect at least 50,000 taxpayers.

5. Actual Implementation: The policy must be actively implemented for at least 30 consecutive days, not merely announced or proposed.

Resolves NO if:

• January 1, 2028 arrives without meeting all YES criteria

• Actions are announced but never implemented

• Implementation lasts fewer than 30 consecutive days

• Courts block implementation before the 30-day threshold is met

• The withheld amount falls below $100 million annually

• Fewer than 50,000 taxpayers are affected

Does NOT Count (Resolves NO):

The following actions, while potentially related, do NOT satisfy the resolution criteria:

• Symbolic or token actions that don't meaningfully reduce federal tax collection

• Voluntary programs where residents choose not to pay federal taxes (state must actively withhold)

• Legal challenges to federal tax collection without actual withholding

• Delays in remitting federal taxes that are later paid (including late payments with penalties)

• Reducing state cooperation with IRS enforcement without actively withholding revenue

• Public statements or proposals without implementation

• Legislative bills introduced but not passed into law

• Non-tax financial actions (e.g., withholding grants, refusing federal contracts)

• Tax increases or changes to state tax policy that don't directly withhold federal revenue

• Actions taken by local governments (cities, counties) rather than the state government

• Actions taken after Trump leaves office (even if before 2028)

• Actions that are immediately reversed within 30 days due to court orders

Edge Case Clarifications

Q: What if NJ creates a state tax that residents can deduct from federal taxes?
A: NO - This doesn't withhold federal revenue; it uses legal deductions.

Q: What if NJ instructs state agencies to stop withholding federal taxes from employee paychecks?
A: YES - If all other criteria are met and it actually reduces federal tax collection.

Q: What if the action is in response to both Trump administration policies AND other factors?
A: YES - As long as protest of Trump administration is explicitly stated as a reason.

Q: What if courts immediately issue an injunction but the state ignores it for 30+ days?
A: YES - Active implementation for 30 days counts regardless of legal status.

Q: What if the policy is implemented but the actual amount withheld is unclear?
A: If credible estimates from state documents, federal government, or major news organizations indicate the $100M threshold is met, this criteria is satisfied.

Q: What if Trump is no longer president but the policy targets his administration's legacy?
A: NO - Action must occur while Trump is president (through his current term ending in January 2029, though market resolves in 2028).

Q: What if multiple small actions collectively withhold $100M but no single action does?
A: YES - The cumulative effect counts if all actions are part of the same protest effort.

Resolution Sources

Resolution will be determined by consensus of credible sources including:

1. Official New Jersey government documents and press releases

2. Federal government official statements (IRS, DOJ, Treasury)

3. Court documents and rulings

4. Reporting from at least 3 major news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg)

Burden of proof: YES requires clear evidence all criteria are met. Ambiguous cases resolve NO.