Is Adrian Dittmann more likely than not to be Elon Musk, according to a poll of Manifold users Jan 24-29?
14
100Ṁ2026resolved Jan 30
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Background:
Many have speculated that https://x.com/AdrianDittmann is secretly Elon Musk. Will Manifold think this is more likely than not to be true in a Jan 24-29 poll?
Resolution criteria:
Sometime on January 24 (CT), I will create this Manifold poll closing on Jan 29:
Is Adrian Dittmann (@AdrianDittmann on X) more likely than not Elon Musk?
Yes
No
[see results]
If there are more Yes votes than No votes, this market resolves Yes. (A tie resolves NO.)
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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