Robin Green's calibration
Grade: B, Score: -1.99
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Robin Green bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
- Will any American university get in trouble for an affirmative action policy by 2033?YESṀ20
- Will the OpenAI Board contractually require Sam Altman to refrain from poaching if he leaves OpenAI again?NOṀ10
- 🐕 Will AI Be Able to Understand the, "Meaning" of Questions Significantly Better By the End of 2023?NOṀ10
70%
80%
- Will Balaji actually take anyone up on his 1BTC for $1M 90-day bet?YESṀ10
- All prediction markets are motivation markets. Is it true that this force is not disproportionately more useful for antisocial ends (assassination markets) than pro-social ends (charity impact markets)?YESṀ10
- The EA consensus does not acknowledge the discovery of a "Cause X" or previously unknown "Crucial Consideration" by June 1st 2023YESṀ10
90%
95%
97%