Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent?
Will monkeypox spread among straight people in the UK to a significant extent?
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2kṀ57kresolved Jul 6
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The UK Health Security Agency is currently reporting that so far 95.3% of cases of monkeypox in the UK have occurred among people who are 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men'.
This market will resolve YES if, by 1 July 2023, the UK Health Security Agency or another UK government agency releases data suggesting that less than 50% of new monkeypox cases in the UK are occurring among the 'Gay, bisexual, or men who have sex with men' group.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.