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last technical briefing: "There is no robust evidence of sustained transmission outside some sexual networks of GBMSM." Percentage of cases in GBMSM: 96.8%. But the report is from September 2022, I do no think that they will update anymore. @RobertWiblin are you going to resolve with the last available report by June 30, or will you resolve N/A if there are no reports close to the summer?

@egroj In the absence of any affirmative evidence released by end of June 2023 I will resolve it as 'No'. :)

@RobertWiblin how will you resolve if the outbreak is over by the summer?

Rob, if there are 10 cases reported and 4 are MSM how will you resolve?

@NathanpmYoung If there are effectively no cases such that random fluctutations could easily make it more than 50% by sheer chance I would want to resolve it as No as that feels more consistent with the spirit of the question.

I've not become less confident but I needed the mana to bet on twitter.

And all of a sudden it became worth betting on this again.

does it resolve yes if monkeypox is called something else but this is true?

I think this is way too high but I don't think it's worth it to bet given the returns. I'll return when they implement loans.

Actual stats are well north of 99% (and include a few children and dogs 🤔)

HIV eventually become endemic across Africa, so it’s possible this does once it’s run through the initial population, but would seem to take more than a year to exhaust the initial population