Will Obama publicly call for Biden to drop out?

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resolved Jul 22

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I won’t bet. Resolves YES if Barack Obama publicly calls for Biden to drop out before Biden has publicly dropped out. Resolves NO otherwise.

Deadline is Election Day.

See https://manifold.markets/RobertSutherland/will-hillary-clinton-publicly-call?r=Um9iZXJ0U3V0aGVybGFuZAhow

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#️ Politics

#🇺🇸 US Politics

#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election

#Democratic Party

#Joe Biden

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Expecting to resolve this NO. Will hold off for 24h.

https://x.com/kenklippenstein/status/1813975780235575515?s=46

Getting warmer… but doesn’t count obviously

sold Ṁ15 YES

Arbitrage against this market:
/Conflux/who-will-come-out-in-support-of-joe

If Biden does not drop out, how does this resolve?

YES if Obama calls on him publicly to drop out, NO otherwise.

Ok. I guess the "prior to Biden dropping out" is not needed then? I admit it made me a bit more confused than necessary. It seems like this market is just "will Obama publicly call for Biden to drop out".

If Biden drops out first and then later it becomes publicly known that Obama was privately calling for him to drop out, that doesn’t count.

Agree that the title could be refined a bit

Edited the title.

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