Will I exercise (in the next week) and then continue (for at least 3/7 days in 7/8 of the following weeks)?
resolved May 5

This market resolves Yes if the following criteria are met. If the below criteria are not met, it resolves No.


  • I begin engaging in at least 150 minutes of moderate aerobic exercise or 75 minutes of vigorous aerobic exercise per week, or a combination of both, spread across at least 3 days, starting no later than 04MAR2024.

  • I record each workout session, including the type of exercise, duration, and intensity.

General Information:

  • I define a week as Mon-Sun

  • I use Pacific Time.

I expect my exercise routine will be recorded by commenting as such (or editing an existing comment) daily. 


  • I reserve the right to record it in an easier (but still contemporaneous and publicly accessible) format. Changing the recording format does not alter the record for any prior days.

  • I reserve the right to modify the specific resolution criteria above, provided that any changes adhere to the spirit of the market (e.g., am I consistently engaging in exercise to maintain or improve my physical health?). Any modifications to the criteria will not affect records for any prior days.

  • Should I alter the resolution criteria or bet in this market (which I plan to do), anyone who has wagered more than 3% of their net worth (at the time of resolution) or Ṁ1000 has the right to request a moderator re-resolution, assuming the request is made in good faith.

Get Ṁ600 play money

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
Sort by:

I failed this after my vacation :(

bought Ṁ45 NO

@RobertCousineau how's it going so far ?

As context: I have not regularly exercised for a greater than 1 month period of time since high school. I've fluctuated in weight since, although for interpersonal reasons did not track my weight (or own a scale) since. From guessing, I'm likely at a 26-28 BMI currently.

I'd like to fix that. Recently (that being the last 3 weeks), I have been going to a bouldering gym with a friend 2-4 times a week (4 times 3 weeks ago, 3 times 2 weeks ago, 2 times last week, 0 times so far this week). The method has been to climb things (I'm currently able to do all the V1's with some practice and about half of the V2's) as desired for 1-2 hours, then run 1-1.5 miles on the treadmill at the end (which I feel quite tired after).

@RobertCousineau my workouts this week have been:

Monday: Mild stretching, 15 minutes (during my standup).

Tuesday: Mild Stretching, 15 minutes, (during my standup).

Wednesday: Nothing of note.

Thursday: Bouldering, moderate intensity, 60 min

Friday: Nothing of note

Saturday: Briskly walking a dog I'm pet-sitting, 90 minutes

Sunday: Briskly walking a dog I'm pet-sitting, 30 minutes.

Overall, I've not done as much as I was hoping this week, but I still meet the criteria.

I'm expecting to keep a Tuesday/Thursday/Sunday schedule of Bouldering for 60-90 min and then running on a treadmill at the end till exhaustion (currently 6 mph at a slight incline for around 1.5 miles, with occasional deceleration to 4mph). Any extra exercise past that is gravy :)

@RobertCousineau I went bouldering/treadmilling today - I ran for 15 min at 6 mph and bouldered for 90 min (with lots of time in-between climbs).

Edit, 07MAR: climbing today at moderate intensity for an hour

@RobertCousineau I walked on Friday for around 30 min, Saturday for around an hour, and bouldered today for around 2 hours. I did a V3 on my third try! :)

@RobertCousineau I went walking at decent intensity (significant hill climb, OK speed) today for around and hour and a half.

@RobertCousineau went bouldering for about an hour at regular intensity. Then did stairs at the end (50 flights). That was harder than I expected.

@RobertCousineau I went bouldering today for around an hour and a half at slightly higher than average intensity and then did 8 min of stairs at the end (25 flights).

opened a Ṁ1,000 YES at 75% order

@RobertCousineau I went bouldering today for an hour and a half and then did 60 flghts of stairs at the end.

Edit, 21MAR: Bouldering again today for around an hour at moderately high intensity.

@RobertCousineau I went bouldering on Tuesday for about 30 min and then did stairs for 15 (got 67 flights).

Nothing Thursday.

I went to a very lively Holi celebration today and ran around/got into colored cornstarch fights for a lot of hours today. I'll count in as 20 min intensive, and an hour and a half moderate exercise.