Will I create a budget (in the next week) and then use it (for at least 5/7 days in 7/8 of the following weeks)?
resolved Mar 4

This market resolves Yes if the following criteria are met. If the below criteria are not met, it resolves No.


  1. Define a detailed budget that outlines expected income, fixed expenses (e.g., rent, utilities, subscriptions), variable expenses (e.g., groceries, leisure activities), and savings goals before 04MAR2024.

  2. The budget is actively used for tracking expenses and income. Active is defined I look at it/update it least 5 out of 7 days a week for at least 7 of the 8 weeks following the creation of the budget.

General Information:

  • I define a week as Monday through Sunday.

  • I use Pacific Time.

I expect tracking of budget use is to be recorded by commenting as such (or editing an existing comment) each day.


  • I reserve the right to record it in an easier (but still contemporaneous and publicly accessible) format (e.g., I might make a Google sheet that tracks all of my personal goals, so I don't have to navigate to and comment on a large number of markets). Changing the recording format does not alter the record for any prior days.

  • I reserve the right to modify the resolution criteria above, provided that any changes adhere to the spirit of the market (e.g., am I actively and effectively using a budget to manage my finances?). Any modifications to the criteria will not affect records for any prior days.

  • Should I alter the resolution criteria or bet in this market (which I plan to do), anyone who has wagered more than 3% of their net worth (at the time of resolution) or Ṁ1000 has the right to request a moderator re-resolution, assuming the request is made in good faith.

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bought Ṁ5,000 NO

Resolving this to No. I do not like how I structured this market. I will make a new market tomorrow to reflect the intent in a more practical fashion.

Congratulations on your first win in these, @Bayesian!

As context: I currently have no formal budget. My current budget shaped activities are more or less:

  1. Shame myself into not spending money where possible (just don't look at much I manage to spend on food please...). I do have a couple numbers I try to keep my checking account above and monthly expenses below (by looking at my credit card statement and checking account through the month).

  2. Put my remaining money into either my investment/saving accounts or charitable donations at the end of each month.

I had a budget I followed back in high school; after school ended/I moved out and got a job that paid more than minim wage, I gave it up.

My hope with this market is to add some financial discipline to my life.