Rina Razh's calibration
Grade: B-, Score: -2.97
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rina Razh bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
30%
40%
50%
- Will we fund "Extending cause prioritization research to the behavioral sciences"?YESṀ15
- Will there be realistic AI generated video with full sound by 2024?NOṀ10
- Will VINCENT VAN GOGH's drawing 'Parc à Arles avec un coin de la Maison Jaune' (1888) sell for more than $8mm at auction November 17th?NOṀ10
60%
70%
80%
90%