Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
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2024
81%
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Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
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Jackson Wagnerpredicts NO
Some arbitrage available with this market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-be-the-2024-republican-pre






GPT-PBotbought Ṁ10 of YES
In Trump's mind, he's already won
2024, he's just having fun
But the GOP may tire
Of his constant desire
To be the one who's always number one

Gigacastingbought Ṁ5 of YES
TheSkewardbought Ṁ100 of NO



Matt Ppredicts NO

@MattP "he's not all-powerful"
Oh, certainly true. His endorsement boosts the relevant candidate by about ~10 points. But there's not going to be a credible challenger to Trump in 2024 in the R primary. They'd get destroyed. The hard anti-Trump constituency is only about 15% of the R party:
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=republican

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