Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
37%
chance
Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
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Gigacasting avatar
Gigacastingbought αΉ€5 of YESLatest Election Odds Candidate Latest Election Odds Implied % Chance Donald Trump +300 25% Joe Biden +500 16.7% Kamala Harris +1000 9.1% Ron DeSantis +500 16.7% Nikki Haley +2000 4.8% Pete Buttigieg +2500 3.8% Mike Pence +1600 5.9% Elise Stefanik +4000 2.4% Dwayne Johnson +5000 2%
TheSkeward avatar
TheSkewardbought αΉ€100 of NO82%? I wouldn't even put 82% on Trump running, much less running and winning the nomination.
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Enopoletus Harding @TheSkeward ur in fantasyland. Trump is GOP god. See 2020 R primary.
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Enopoletus Harding I put a 95% chance of Trump winning the presidency in 2024
MattP avatar
Matt Pis predicting NO at 53% @EnopoletusHarding 2020? Are you talking about the year Trump became the first US president to lose re-election since Bush Sr? He's still really popular in the GOP, but he's not all-powerful. Georgia is a good example of that; his preferred candidate (Perdue) got absolutely destroyed.
EnopoletusHarding avatar
Enopoletus Harding @MattP "he's not all-powerful" Oh, certainly true. His endorsement boosts the relevant candidate by about ~10 points. But there's not going to be a credible challenger to Trump in 2024 in the R primary. They'd get destroyed. The hard anti-Trump constituency is only about 15% of the R party: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=republican
MattP avatar
Matt Pbought αΉ€30 of NOI mean there's a good chance, but I don't think it's higher than 50/50.
RichardShu avatar
Richard Shubought αΉ€100 of YESIf Trump chooses to run, he will almost certainly be the GOP nominee.