Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
37%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?
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Gigacastingbought Ṁ5 of YESLatest Election Odds
Candidate Latest Election Odds Implied % Chance
Donald Trump +300 25%
Joe Biden +500 16.7%
Kamala Harris +1000 9.1%
Ron DeSantis +500 16.7%
Nikki Haley +2000 4.8%
Pete Buttigieg +2500 3.8%
Mike Pence +1600 5.9%
Elise Stefanik +4000 2.4%
Dwayne Johnson
+5000 2%
TheSkewardbought Ṁ100 of NO82%? I wouldn't even put 82% on Trump running, much less running and winning the nomination.



Matt Pis predicting NO at 53% @EnopoletusHarding 2020? Are you talking about the year Trump became the first US president to lose re-election since Bush Sr?
He's still really popular in the GOP, but he's not all-powerful. Georgia is a good example of that; his preferred candidate (Perdue) got absolutely destroyed.

Enopoletus Harding @MattP "he's not all-powerful"
Oh, certainly true. His endorsement boosts the relevant candidate by about ~10 points. But there's not going to be a credible challenger to Trump in 2024 in the R primary. They'd get destroyed. The hard anti-Trump constituency is only about 15% of the R party:
https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=republican

YES shares
440
352
272
205
183
154
153
107
91
61
52
32
NO shares
475
214
176
162
151
149
69
51
35







































