Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?

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resolved Jul 22

Resolved

YES

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Will Donald Trump be the Republican presidential nominee for 2024?

2024 US Presidential Election

2024 GOP Primaries

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@mods resolves YES

Thanks :-)

predictedNO

Some arbitrage available with this market: https://manifold.markets/dglid/who-will-be-the-2024-republican-pre

Who will be the 2024 Republican presidential nominee?

Feb 17, 9:56pm: In the event of more than one answer being correct, this market will resolve to the earliest answer created.

Order for trump lovers @ 74%. Might change my mind, get in quick

predictedYES

@Gen Any better odds than 74%?

@MartinRandall Put a limit up, I might be interested

@Gen m10,000 yes @ 66% available for 24 hours.

predictedNO

@MartinRandall The order is still there.. slowly being filled

In Trump's mind, he's already won
2024, he's just having fun
But the GOP may tire
Of his constant desire
To be the one who's always number one

Latest Election Odds Candidate Latest Election Odds Implied % Chance Donald Trump +300 25% Joe Biden +500 16.7% Kamala Harris +1000 9.1% Ron DeSantis +500 16.7% Nikki Haley +2000 4.8% Pete Buttigieg +2500 3.8% Mike Pence +1600 5.9% Elise Stefanik +4000 2.4% Dwayne Johnson +5000 2%

82%? I wouldn't even put 82% on Trump running, much less running and winning the nomination.

@TheSkeward ur in fantasyland. Trump is GOP god. See 2020 R primary.

I put a 95% chance of Trump winning the presidency in 2024

predictedNO

@EnopoletusHarding 2020? Are you talking about the year Trump became the first US president to lose re-election since Bush Sr? He's still really popular in the GOP, but he's not all-powerful. Georgia is a good example of that; his preferred candidate (Perdue) got absolutely destroyed.

@MattP "he's not all-powerful" Oh, certainly true. His endorsement boosts the relevant candidate by about ~10 points. But there's not going to be a credible challenger to Trump in 2024 in the R primary. They'd get destroyed. The hard anti-Trump constituency is only about 15% of the R party: https://today.yougov.com/topics/politics/trackers/donald-trump-favorability?crossBreak=republican

I mean there's a good chance, but I don't think it's higher than 50/50.

If Trump chooses to run, he will almost certainly be the GOP nominee.

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