Will Trump win and nominate RFK to a cabinet position?
Basic
19
๐•Š884
Feb 1
26%
chance

This market will settle as YES if Trump wins the presidency and he nominates Robert F Kennedy to a cabinet position by January 31, 2025.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get
แน€1,000
and
S3.00
Sort by:
bought แน€250 YES

Severely underpriced

amazing

It's been the logical thing to do

So if Trump wins and announces RFK for a cabinet position before taking office, this resolves as YES?

@mods this market was a bad candidate for sweepstakes as the title doesn't match the description. The deadline of January 31st was probably chosen ignorantly, and so the market will probably resolve No. You should make a new market that has a better deadline, and make that a sweepstakes one

@PeterNjeim here are the dates when Biden nominated individuals to his cabinet after winning the election

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/Biden_cabinet.htm

@RichardHanania I was thinking of confirmation sorry. We're following the "Received" column?

opened a ๐•Š50.00 NO at 15% order

@PeterNjeim We'll go by announced.

@RichardHanania Thanks for editing, as there is no column titled "nominated". "Announced" is an unofficial public statement, and "received" is the official nomination, so thankfully you chose the more lenient option for this market. You should add this to the description

If Trump wins, Jan. 31 is a pretty quick turnaround from inauguration.

It typically takes 61 days. Trump took 97 days in his first term.

https://presidentialtransition.org/blog/the-u-s-process-for-confirming-a-cabinet-takes-longer/

@JeffBerman this market is not about confirmation

@RichardHanania Fair point. Still, with just 11 days from inauguration, Trump may have other thing to get to before rounding out his cabinet. If it were made end of February, I'd wager here.

@JeffBerman presidents usually nominate before the inauguration. See here.

https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations/Biden_cabinet.htm

bought แน€500 NO

resolves no if trump doesn't win?

@Qoiuoiuoiu yes, it will resolve NO if Trump loses

ยฉ Manifold Markets, Inc.โ€ขTerms + Mana-only Termsโ€ขPrivacyโ€ขRules