This market will settle as YES if there is one or more significant riots related to the US presidential election between October 28, 2024, and midnight Eastern Time on January 20, 2025.
To settle as YES, the following criteria must be met:
One or more incidents referred to by credible news sources as riots, involving at least 500 participants across one or more cities motivated by the same grievance, leading to either:
A) The death or hospitalization of at least 10 people—including rioters, police, bystanders, targets, or others,
or
B) At least $1 million in property damage.
All criteria must be met by the same side. For example, if Harris supporters cause $500K in damages and Trump supporters cause another $500K in damages in different cities, this will not be sufficient to settle the market as YES. Edge cases with ambiguities under the resolution criteria will be settled in accordance with the spirit of the market.
1,000
3.00are demanding that Senators support the Joint Resolutions of Disapproval to block weapon sales to Israel.
Not seeing anything here about the election.
Obviously one can "relate" anything to the election via a sufficiently long chain of steps if you want to, but that's clearly not what's meant here.
@VivaLaPanda it certainly seems true that the conservative militia protestors are more robust to cold weather than the progressive protestor base.
@VivaLaPanda generally true that weather is a big factor, but the first trump inauguration probably crossed the $1 million in property damage threshold despite cold weather.
@RichardHanania do the riots have to be stateside? may seem like a silly question but just curious in case something crops up outside of the US that could be attributed to the election.
I think the potential of disturbances from antifa groups/syndicates may be be undervalued here. The resolution criteria is fairly generous, but I have a question regarding its scope...
Point of clarification: Would a riot motivated by anti-Trump and/or anti-fascist sentiment resolve yes? Or does the grievance need to stem specifically from an election-related dispute? @creator
@silvertakana lol it's not even relevant in South Korea. Believe polls showed like 1% said they follow it.
@TiredCliche Most of the chance of rioting was from Trump supporters protesting his loss, and they won’t do that given that he won
@TiredCliche there’s really no controversy around this election result. No one is saying Russia interfered (enough to matter) or that there was ballot stuffing going on. Certainly folks whose candidate lost are disappointed, but it was a clear and resounding Trump victory.
@TiredCliche since it was a landslide victory for Trump there aren't many people around to protest.
@breck No, there are going to be accusations about the musk bribery thing. I dont know whether they're going to be big, loud accusations, or if most people are going to accept that that probably didn't affect the overall election result. I hope for the latter, every time there is accusation of election interference it gets us deeper into legitimacy crisis. But twitter is a hell of a drug, so we'll see. (Note that most of the reason I bet on this market is just to keep my prediction streak going)