Will the probability of resolution on this question exceed 75% at one point and fall below 25% at another point by June 1, 2022?

105Ṁ618

resolved May 11

Resolved

YES

ALL

This resolves to YES if the probability of YES on this market exceeds 75% at one point and falls below 25% at another point on or before June 1, 2022.

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2 Holders

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One year from now, will the percentage that this question resolves YES (as shown by Manifold) be above 50%?

-4% 1d30% chance

Will the % chance of this question be positive or negative on Jan 1 2026.

39% chance

This market has a ~49% chance of resolving as YES in early 2026

49% chance

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