I fucked this market up. Someone bailed my account out because they are a based pepe Chad.

Related market: https://manifold.markets/Rederth/will-my-account-be-profitable-by-th?r=UmVkZXJ0aA

Will my account be profitable by the end of 2023?

50% chance. I created a related market but I've got a confusing resolution. This should hopefully remedy that. Things to note: I've nuked my account into oblivion and as of 19 Aug I am at -14000 for profit. If my account shows profit as of the chart indicator for midnight Dec 31 2023 this will resolve yes. If my account shows a negative profit at that point this will resolve no. If I fucked this up again the market may resolve N/A.

Is it possible to buy bets with negative balance and negative net worth?

@MrLuke255 it is not lol. I'm getting trader bonuses only at the moment

@Rederth Is it even technically possible for you to get enough mana to break even? I don't think so, considering that trader bonus is capped on 500 per market

Unfortunately I don't have any mana to bet on NO

@MrLuke255 I got 5 for clicking share so I can do that for a daily/weekly quest as well. Doubt I will but the idea to climb back from dead is appealing

@Rederth If people vote Yes enough then they can give you a direct transfer to profit on their bets

@Mqrius can people direct transfer funds without someone clicking the link? Also they would need to offset 15k ish in mana for profit.

I suppose take that as warning not to dump a ludicrous amount in no, because I'm open to large donations haha

@Rederth Not sure what the process is. But it looks like you're not 15k in debt, but only 300 or so. Your profits are -14k, but your balance is only -350

@Mqrius is profits not how I would measure if my accounts balance is positive or negative? That's how I was measuring account success, is overall posting profits.

That was certainly the intent of the market but I'm open to argument to the contrary. My graph is negative 14k or whatever.

@Rederth There's literally something called "account balance", and it's different from profits. It's the third number if you look at your account. I can't know what the actual intention was, but that's the thing that's called "account balance", so ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯

@Mqrius Donations wouldn't be counted towards profits either tbh

@Mqrius true, they would just allow me to bet again. I don't believe the account balance of now showed as such when I created the market (manifold keeps changing).

I suppose betting and acquiring loans, then losing terribly would make the account balance negative? If that's the case then it's true, I don't have much to gain to be positive.

@Rederth Yeah, that's almost the only way to do it I think. Or pay for mana and then do a chargeback.

@Rederth So does this market resolve based on “Profit” or “Balance”?

@june a third option would be to resolve as N/A due to resolution ambiguity. After that Red could make a new market with clear criteria

@june I think net worth is better, because balance should just be what you have on hand (most people would permanently be positive).

I can see profits being a bad resolution criteria and against what was written for the market. Thoughts?

@Mqrius I could resolve n/a. True. I couldn't make a market until I can get a positive balance but that could be the most fair option.

@Rederth there, that should make this easier. also, yee wins

@CodeandSolder that helps. Thanks!

@Rederth I think you should resolve n/a. While technically you don't constradict the title in your description, it very strongly suggests the question is about profits. Like, you didn't actually meant this market to be about balance/"net worth," did you? What could possibly be going on in your head to make the description make sense in that case?

@na_pewno They did say that they had profits in mind when making the market, but then the "plot twist" part at the end mentions the word balance and minus 350, so it's not suuuper clear cut that it was about profits.

As I have a negative profit in this market, of course I don't mind an N/A 😇

@Mqrius that's what I initially intended but I clearly messed up the wording or was relying on a different ui. Either way I think n/a is the way to go

@Rederth The question is very clear in meaning (since Balance is a keyword in Manifold UI). It may not be what you intended, but you accidentally made a very clear question and resolving N/A feels bad.

Conflict of interest: I make M2 from you resolving anything other than N/A

Edit: Removed a line saying he should resolve YES because I misread the question as "before the end of 2023"

@SavioMak Manifold has no hard and fast rules about this, which a) means creators are free to do what they want if not malicious and b) there is disagreement among users as to whether "accidentally precise" resolution criteria should be followed. I think the site would be terrible if we held people to their accidentally-precise criteria, and I'm glad it usually doesn't happen.

@chrisjbillington Resolving N/A inflicts a lot of opportunity cost to betters and should be minimized. In this case where almost everyone should have the same interpretation of the "accidentally precise" resolution criteria, resolving by the letter feels more correct.

For this question, It isn't even a case of the spirit of the resolution criteria vs the literal meaning of the resolution criteria, because you can't infer any "spirit" of the resolution criteria by the question+description+comment before Red says that he made a mistake (at least I can't, even with my most lenient eyes). The fact that he mentioned buying mana makes it even more plausible that he is actually referring to the Balance tab because you cannot inflate profit by buying mana.

Meta: I don't think the site would be terrible if we held people accountable for accidentally-precise criteria, exactly because this is not a frequent occurrence.