Personal Goals

Resolves yes if the People's Republic of China attempts to physically invade Taiwan, regardless of whether they succeed

#China #War #Taiwan

Wars

Marshall's group for testing

Who does Xi think he is?

Global Macro

Pelosi Taiwan visit

Pacific Rim 

Taiwan 

China

Politics

World

This question resolves to YES if the Screen Time feature on his phone on iOS reports more than an hour of screen time on TikTok in its Daily Average feature. He has only recently begun using the app.

Resolves yes if Congress passes something related to civilian ownership and use of guns. This could be gun safety, gun control, or new laws to make it easier to get guns.

The law has to pass the House and Senate. The market still resolves Yes if the law is vetoed by the President. The market still resolves Yes if the law is found to be unconstitutional.

Executive action don't count. Laws relating to military or police use of guns don't count. Budgets that fund existing agencies don't count. If you're not sure if a law would count, ask in comments.

#USA

US Legislature

Dating

This market resolves to YES if I attend a public or private high school with more than 10 students at the beginning of the next school year, and NO otherwise
Context: I'm currently a high school sophomore, considering leaving in order to work on community building and AI work. It seems quite likely to me that I'll end up leaving high school at the end of this year, teaching myself what I would have counterfactually learned in the next four years of schooling.

Some clarifications/elaborations (may 17)
- I'd work on governance and/or ops for AI safety researchers, not capabilities. 
- Sorry i mean to say teach myself the things i actually need to know, which is differentially math/science/cs
- I'm applying to mlab this summer
- I'm applying to college next fall
- Currently have the equivalent of a GED, but getting a homeschool diploma is cheap enough that it's probably worth it
- I'm starting a work trial to be program director at SERI MATS relatively soon

I already did half in the span of about a week, however, I have limited control over my time and I find the task tremendously aversive.

Posting this out of mild curiosity on personal question prediction markets, especially related to goal setting.

Entertainment and Pop Culture

Movies

Oscars 2023

Ukraine

TIME Person of the Year

Ray Doraisamy

This market resolves to YES if I get a positive pregnancy test before June 3rd 2022.

I keep being tempted, especially because a lot of the most beautiful fabric is technically quilting fabric, but it seems hard.  Will I complete a quilting project (still counts if it's not a blanket but is some other quilted item) by the end of 2022?

Today I sewed my five year old a dress.  She was able to get into it with a lot of help and then out of it again also with a lot of help, but it was not practically speaking wearable.  Will I manage to salvage this one (or use one of the new fabrics I have coming) to make something she fits into before June 20?  (Note: I find patterns annoying/confusing and am using a self-drafting/"fuck around and find out" style of sewing.)

Will I be aware of more than 15 females infected?
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1CEBhao3rMe-qtCbAgJTn5ZKQMRFWeAeaiXFpBY3gbHE/edit#gid=0

Resolves no after closing(end 2023), or if the outbreak seems over.

#Epidemic #ID #infectiousdisease #pox #Science #Monkeypox #Covid

Science

Monkeypox

Medicine 

#MattYglesias2022
One of Matt Yglesias' predictions for 2022: https://www.slowboring.com/p/predictions-are-hard
#China #Covid #2022

#MattYglesias2022

Zero Covid

Law & Order

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_Kingdom_monkeypox_outbreak

Close date updated to 2022-05-20 11:59 pm

Epstein-Bar has recently been very credibly fingered as the leading cause of Multiple Sclerosis:

https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/news/press-releases/epstein-barr-virus-may-be-leading-cause-of-multiple-sclerosis/

Will we discover that some other mysterious disease of unknown origin is caused by a Virus?

#virus
#medicine
#science

Ray Doraisamy's calibration