Ray Doraisamy's calibration
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Ray Doraisamy bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
10 largest bets for each bucket
60%
70%
80%
- In the UK, will there be over 20 confirmed cases of Monkey Pox by July?YESṀ100
- Will I release my book, 'The Arena: Rise, Gamer' in an ebook format before July 30?YESṀ100
- Will another long-mysterious disease turn out to have been caused by a Virus all along before 2023?NOṀ50
- Will there be a US recession before the end of 2022?NOṀ50