Rasmus's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.52
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rasmus bet YES at x%, the market resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
- Will Destiny play 200 ranked games of Starcraft 2 by the end of February?YESṀ1,000
- Will Destiny stream on YouTube before the 01.02?YESṀ500
- Will Destiny's video "Rad Feminist Instantly Quits Debate After Hearing Destiny's Logic" Reach 120k Views By Market Close Of February 22nd 2023 11:59pm EST.YESṀ400