Rahul Shah's calibration
Grade: A-, Score: -0.59
Resolution probability
Probability after bet
Interpretation
- The green dot at (x%, y%) means when Rahul Shah bet YES at x%, the question resolved YES y% of the time on average.
- Perfect calibration would result in all green points being above the line, all red points below, and a score of zero.
- The score is the mean squared error for yes and no bets times -100.
- Each point is a bucket of bets weighted by bet amount with a maximum range of 10% (sell trades are excluded).
YES bets
NO bets
3 largest bets for each bucket
5%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
95%
97%
99%
- Will Oppenheimer gross more than $600 million within the first six months of its release?YESṀ2,039
- Will Nikki Haley get more vote than Ron Desantis in the 2024 Mississippi Republican presidential primary?YESṀ2,000
- Will Oppenheimer gross more than $600 million within the first six months of its release?YESṀ1,081